[CNBC]次期大統領トランプ氏の経済政策ビジョンと影響とは？

"The President-elect of the
United States, Donald Trump, is set to inherit the world's
leading economy. America has given us an
unprecedented and powerful mandate. On the campaign trail, he
offered many ideas for the future. Other countries are going to
finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we've
done for the world. We will drill, baby, drill. In reality, President Trump
has quite a great deal of discretion on how he acts,
especially with a with a Republican Congress. I don't think this is just
going to be a magic wish list of everything that Trump
wants. So what's in store now that
Americans have cast their vote? Many Americans voted
with their wallets in this election. Consumer prices
have increased over 20% since February 2020. I bet most Americans under the
age of 45 or 50 have never experienced inflation until
this last episode, and I don't think they realized that
would basically take a recession, you know, even a
depression in the United States to restore the price
level to what it was in 2019. Managing prices in the United
States is typically left to the Federal Reserve. The Fed's policies affect the
cost of borrowing money, which in turn influences how likely
you are to get a job or afford rent. President Trump may
look for more control there. I made a lot of money. I was very successful, and I
think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people
that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman. To politicize Central bank is generally
associated with higher rates of inflation, and it ends up
hurting the US and actually ends up benefiting the rest
of the world because you essentially get capital
outflow from the United States. Trump getting involved with
the Fed will certainly spook people and investors to a
certain extent. Wouldn't surprise me if you
see the replacement in 2026 when Powell's term as Chair
is up. Trump has other tools to help
Americans out financially. One idea called for leaving
about 93 million Americans off the hook for at least a
portion of their federal income taxes. I think when h
e proposed eliminating the income tax and just having
tariffs, there was sort of like an oh my gosh moment for
everyone. We've seen this with Trump
before, right? He throws out this really
bold idea. But then by the time it
actually starts being implemented, by the time he's
talked with more people about it, you see it kind of
transform. Americans received a tax cut
during Trump's first term, but that tax cut is set to expire
in 2025. I think Republicans pretty
much across the board do want to see a lot of what was in
that 2017 tax package expanded. To pay for those cuts congress
will have to shuffle things around. They may consider
ending the tax exempt status for municipal bonds, or dial
back health care spending. Without cuts it could add to
the national debt. When you saw this passed in
2017, it really did add to the deficit and there is a chance
that it could do so again. By 2030 Federal debt could
amount to over 125% of gross domestic product, or GDP,
which is a measure of the country's entire economic
output. Another option increase
economic growth by loosening regulations that impact
industries like oil production, airlines, banking
and tech. Deregulatory process is
something that probably will be pointed to as the most
potential influence. You know, the economy is so
many things in so many places that's open to so many
foreign influences that the extent to which Trump alone
and his White House alone can shape that, I think is often
overstated. Trump has also called for
tariffs of 10 to 20% on imports arriving in the
United States, and a higher tariff on Chinese goods. The higher the tariff, the
more likely it is that the company will come into the
United States and build a factory in the United States,
so it doesn't have to pay the tariff. The goal of those tariffs is
to generate revenue and bring industrial jobs back to the
United States. Ironically, this would not
promote a revitalization of the industrial sector. Those sorts of things will
raise the prices of all kinds of industrial inputs. And so that will make it
harder to produce industrial products in the United
States. It will also tend to push
down investment. Those tariffs could also lead
to higher prices for shoppers. The impact on different levels
of household income is pretty dramatic. And you know, these
kinds of taxes, tariff taxes are extraordinarily
regressive and hurt lowest income families the most. The tariff policy is expected
to weigh on both small and big businesses. The
President-elect's promise to deport undocumented people
could have a far reaching economic impact. On day one, I will launch the
largest deportation program in American history. There's estimated 8.3 million
undocumented workers in the United States right now. If you pull them, any
substantial number of them out, it will have large
negative effects on the US economy. If all undocumented workers
were expelled, employment would fall below its baseline
trend by 2028. Economic growth would
decline to. Agriculture and construction
would be particularly hard hit. Food prices in the
United States would go up substantially, and it would
substantially disrupt the housing market. They provide a reservoir of
relatively low cost labor that is a kind of lubricant to how
the economy works."