トランプ政権とイーロン・マスクの蜜月関係

Over the last stretch of
Donald Trump's candidacy for president. No one was a
bigger cheerleader for him than Elon Musk. Ahhh, America's just not not
just going to be great. America is going to reach
heights that it has never seen before. The future is going
to be amazing! Aside from stumping for Trump
on the campaign trail for weeks, the tech magnate also
poured millions into Trump's election campaign. Musk also
used his social media company X as a pulpit to promote his
preferred candidate, often with claims that were untrue. It's still a very powerful
platform. It's still the platform many
celebrities and politicians and so many people use to
make official announcements and talk directly to people. So it is a real hub and
source of news. And he basically turned that
into Trump's favor. The admiration went both ways. Here is Donald Trump praising
Musk during his speech declaring victory in the 2024
presidential election. We have a new star. A star is born. Elon. Trump's imminent presidency is
paying off for Musk, who is already the richest man in
the world, even before Trump steps into the White House on
January 20th. In the week after the
election was called for Donald Trump, Tesla stock surged,
with shares of the company reaching their highest level
since 2022. The company's market
capitalization is now over $1 trillion. A lot of analysts are going to
look at the Trump presidency as a very positive thing for
Tesla, because they just see Musk's influence over the
incoming administration can streamline things that Tesla
wants permission to do. With the election of Donald
Trump to a second presidential term, and the appointment of
Elon Musk as the head of a new government efficiency
commission known as DOGE, CNBC wanted to learn how Musk and
his myriad of companies may benefit from having the ear
of the president. Elon Musk's business empire is
sprawling and includes EV maker Tesla, social media
company X, artificial intelligence startup xAI,
computer interface company Neuralink, tunneling venture
Boring Company and aerospace firm SpaceX. Some of these
companies already benefit tremendously from federal
contracts. SpaceX has already earned more
than $19 billion from its prime contracts with the
government. Most of that business is coming from
contracts with NASA and the Department of Defense,
including like Space Force, Air Force and others. Sometimes it's NOAA, but the
federal government in the US is very, very reliant on
SpaceX to go ahead with its launches to put new
satellites up for their various purposes, be it
defense, be it environmental and communications. Abroad the U.S. government has
been paying SpaceX millions to make its Starlink satellite
internet available in Ukraine. The company is also working
on a military version of Starlink called Starshield
for the Department of Defense. This vast reliance on SpaceX
has caused some of SpaceX's rivals to object. In 2021, Jeff Bezos' Blue
Origin sued and eventually lost a case where the company
argued that NASA had unfairly chosen SpaceX as the sole
winner of a contract to develop a lunar lander for
NASA's Artemis missions. NASA has since also
contracted with Blue Origin for the task. Still, with a
favorable president on his side, it's not hard to
imagine Elon Musk's SpaceX winning even more of these
lucrative government contracts in the future. As the concerns about a
monopolistic relationship grow within that federal
government. Trump isn't likely to slow it
down. SpaceX is likely to earn out
more than $5 billion a year over the next several years
from federal contracts they've already kind of got locked
down, and that could even grow. During his victory speech,
Trump marveled at SpaceX's ability to retrieve the
rocket booster of its massive Starship rocket and praised
Musk for delivering Starlink Wi-Fi terminals to North
Carolina following Hurricane Helene. It was very dangerous. People would die. They had no
communication. All the wires were down. I called Elon Musk. I said, Elon, you have
something called Starlink. Is that right? Yes I do. What the hell is it? He said
it's a communication system. That's very good. I said,
Elon, they need it really, really badly in North
Carolina. Can you get it? He had that
there so fast. It was incredible. Tesla has also benefited
greatly from government support, mostly by taking
advantage of existing EV policies like automotive
regulatory credits, which are issued to companies that make
low carbon or no carbon emission vehicles. Regulatory credits made up
about 60% of Tesla's net income in the second quarter
of 2024, and about 39% in the third quarter. In total, the
company has reported about $10 billion in sales of
environmental credits since 2015. While Trump has often
promised to dismantle existing green energy subsidies and
programs, he may not have the authority to singlehandedly
dismantle carbon credits, as many carbon credit markets
are state run. In addition, many clean
energy projects enjoy bipartisan support. 80% of the funding from the
president's signature bills, the Inflation Reduction Act
and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law have gone
to red districts, districts represented by Republicans. It would be political
malpractice to undo those opportunities. Where Trump may have more
power is nixing electric vehicle tax credits offered
to those who purchase EVs, and eliminating grants for the
build out of electric vehicle charging, which Tesla has
also benefited from. In a post on X in July, Musk
was adamant that Tesla doesn't need subsidies and that
removing them would only help the company. Some industry
insiders agree. At the end of the day, Tesla
is the best position versus all the automakers, including
the legacy automakers on EVs. You know, they they have the
biggest scale. They have the lowest cost. They have the highest margins
to withstand an environment where, let's say, Trump pulls
a majority of the incentives. Musk and Tesla are now focused
on autonomy and bringing robotaxis to market, a goal
that still seems years away. Tesla is still really
grappling with development of that technology. They have
never made a vehicle that's safe to drive without a human
at the wheel ready to steer or brake at all times in an
uncontrolled environment like the public roads. The Trump team is reportedly
planning to prioritize federal regulations around
self-driving vehicles in the U.S., which would be a boon
for Tesla. Trump did make it official
late last night that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will
co-lead what he's calling the Department of Government
Efficiency. Trump said that their goal
will be to and this is a direct quote here 'dismantle
government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut
wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal
agencies.' Now, guys, many questions about how exactly
any of that would work. Starting with that, the
president elect cannot just create a new agency without
Congress, which approves all spending. But Trump did say a
little bit in his statement announcing it that Musk and
Ramaswamy will work from outside of government in
partnership with the Office of Management and Budget. That setup will not require
either one of them to divest anything, to pass a
background check or to get Senate confirmation. Even as an advisor, the
position could be a powerful boost to Musk's business
interests. The number one way Elon Musk
and his companies would benefit from a Trump
administration is through deregulation and defanging,
giving fewer resources to federal agencies tasked with
oversight of him and his businesses. As head of the Government
Efficiency Commission, Musk has said that he plans to
shave off a significant amount of dollars from the federal
budget. We set up DOGE. Yes. How much do you think we can
rip out of this wasted $6.5 trillion Harris Biden budget? Well, I think we can do at
least 2 trillion. Yeah. For context, in 2023, the
federal government budget was $6.1 trillion, with the
largest chunks of the budget going to entitlement programs
including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. On X, Musk suggests that one
way to rein in the budget is to get rid of the fraud
affecting some government programs. Data from the
Government Accountability Office shows that the federal
government lost an estimated $233 to $521 billion annually
due to fraud between 2018 and 2022. Musk has also suggested
that he will consolidate some of the country's over 400
federal agencies. I think there's something like
428 federal agencies. That's almost two agencies
per year since the founding of the country and more being
created. And so I call this like a
sort of strangulation by overregulation. Um, and this
is crazy. In a recent commentary piece
in the Wall Street Journal, Musk and Ramaswamy wrote that
DOGE will pursue three major kinds of reform regulatory
rescissions, administrative reductions, and cost savings. The commentary went on to say
that many existing federal regulations were never passed
by Congress, and should therefore be nullified, which
president elect Trump will be able to do by executive
action. Meanwhile, cutting
expenditures like the $535 million a year that goes to
the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, $1.5 billion
for grants to international organizations and nearly 300
million to groups like Planned Parenthood, could deliver
major cost savings, they said. The two also championed the
large-scale auditing of agencies calling out the
Pentagon for failing its seventh consecutive audit. Musk here really has the
opportunity to suggest to Trump that he makes cuts at
federal agencies that could, in effect, directly impact
how he does business. That includes the SEC, that
includes the FAA and SpaceX launches, kind of cutting the
red tape there, making it easier for them to launch
without certain regulations and rules, including
environmental protections. And then there's the National
Highway Transportation Safety Administration. That is a big
barrier for Musk's ambitions and robotaxis. The agency has been a strict
watchdog when it comes to the safety of Tesla's vehicles. This is a major recall. Tesla is announcing after an
investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration. Tesla is recalling 362,000
vehicles. Tesla shares taking a leg
lower late today after the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration found a critical safety gap in its
autopilot system. Meanwhile, testing standards
for autonomous vehicles are done on a state-by-state
basis, something Musk has said he would like to be
standardized through a federal process and Trump has said he
will support. Musk has said that he wants to
get the DOT to instate a federal motor vehicle safety
standard. That would allow you
basically like a super pass, you know. You just meet this
one standard and then you can use your robotaxis anywhere
in the country. If Tesla can get a favorable
environment around the government talking to the
states about making some of these full self-driving more
available that can move the needle. Just to put some
quick perspective on it. Within a few years, there'll
be about 10 million Teslas on the road. Half of them get
it, that adds $6 billion in their net to their net
income. That would increase it by
about 35%. This is a huge lever. Elon Musk has frequently
blamed government regulation for stifling innovation. A bonfire of nonsense
regulations would be epic. Yeah more lax regulation could
also help Musk's newer companies. As far as what's going on with
X and Twitter, that piece is that there's probably a
benefit just around his ability to continue to grow
that platform, just kind of in a more free speech type of
world. And and lastly, don't forget
about xAI. I mean, the whole AI piece,
this potential around some regulation around AI that
diminished today. And I'm stretched to try to
find out how this could play out negative for Elon. A weakened regulatory body
might also bolster Musk's fight against the numerous
probes and investigations he and his companies are facing
from federal agencies. There's somewhere in the
ballpark of 19 or 20 federal probes and lawsuits involving
Musk and federal agencies. There are OSHA investigations
into safety issues at Tesla and SpaceX that are open. There's an EEOC civil rights
investigation into Tesla. They believe that Tesla
allowed racist discrimination and retaliation against black
employees to happen for years. The labor board is
investigating SpaceX for possible alleged retaliation
against employees who spoke critically of Musk with this
open letter. Additionally, the SEC is
investigating whether Elon and his brother have committed
securities fraud. The EPA found SpaceX was in
violation of the Clean Water Act in Texas, and he was
livid about that, which delayed the Starship launches
that he wanted to go forward with. And then you've got all
the Department of Transportation safety probes. There are four open currently
looking into mostly safety defects around autopilot,
FSD, and these partially automated driving systems
that Tesla's had out on public roads. He's hoping that Trump
will, you know, force those agencies to wind down and
abandon any probes, charges, litigation they were pursuing
against him, against Tesla, against SpaceX, and so forth. Finally, Trump is also likely
to back Musk's anti-union stance. Here's the president
elect speaking to Musk during the two hour interview on X
in August. Well, you you're the greatest
cutter. I mean, I look at what you
do. You walk in and you just say you want to quit. They go on strike. They. I won't mention the name of
the company, but they go on strike, and you say, that's
okay. You're all gone. You're all
gone. So every one of you is gone. There was a thought going into
after that big union contract was won with UAW following
the strike, that that might trickle over and bleed over
into Tesla, that the UAW could convince Tesla workers to do
the exact same thing and unionize for the first time. Now that the election has
been decided in Trump's favor, a lot of the gas in that
argument has been taken out. Although Trump and Musk align
on a number of strategies, it's unclear where Musk
stands on Chinese tariffs since he's changed his
position in the past. The Chinese car companies are
the most competitive car companies in the world.
Frankly, I think if there are not trade barriers
established, they will pretty much demolish most other car
companies in the world. Tesla competes quite well in
the market in China with no tariffs and no differential
support. Um, so, uh, I in general, I'm
in favor of of no tariffs. He's been very easy to
criticize people home and abroad except China, which is
his biggest growth market outside of the United States. Tesla's been producing more
vehicles there. And he needs the Chinese
Communist Party to like him. One of Tesla's most productive
factories is its Gigafactory in Shanghai, where they make
cars and are also planning to make megapacks. These energy
storage systems that are for, you know, utilities or
large-scale operations like businesses. They, likely
under a Trump administration won't be able to export those
to the states. While tariffs could help
protect Tesla from Chinese competitors, such a move
could lead to disruptions to Tesla's automotive supply
chain. Though Tesla leads its
competitors in the number of domestic parts it uses, the
company still relies on some materials and parts from
China. And Musk's other companies
could also be affected by global tariffs. A huge number of the AI chip
tech that X Corp and xAI are using right now comes from
Nvidia and Nvidia's major manufacturing partner, TSMC,
is based in Taiwan. It's unclear if Trump's
tariffs will apply specifically to TSMC, which
is already investing in building out manufacturing
plants in the U.S.. If and when a trade war does
break out again, Musk might stay out of it. It would
behoove him to continue to stay out of any kind of
Chinese related politics. Just like we see at companies
like Apple and CEO Tim Cook there, they just kind of stay
out of the conversation for that, for fear of poking the
bear, because they're so dependent on those Chinese
consumers buying their stuff. Time will tell how effective
Musk's foray into politics will be in influencing Trump
and his decisions in the next administration. But one thing
is for certain, Musk will remain a businessman above
all. I find that the best lens for
understanding Elon Musk and the actions he takes at his
companies has to do with, like, opportunism. He takes advantage of
whatever he thinks will make himself and his companies
wealthier and more successful. So I don't know how much he
and Trump are truly aligned, but they're mutually very
useful at this time.