米国の「ドルストア」崩壊危機：低価格小売の苦悩と復活の道[CNBC]

There are over 36,000 stores across the U.S., which is more than one store for every 10,000 people. These companies have long been Wall Street darlings. During the Great Recession in 2009–2010, both Dollar General and Dollar Tree were among the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500. Over that period, the share price for Dollar Tree and Dollar General, the two biggest players in the space, surged by over 1,500% between 2008 and 2022.

However, over the past two years, the stocks of both companies have plummeted, and the short-term outlook isn’t promising. While there was significant growth for decades, the past decade saw a 50% increase in store numbers, which brought new challenges. Recently, Dollar General and Dollar Tree have cut their guidance, alarming investors. This raises the question: what happened to dollar stores, and what must these companies do to recover?

**Key Players and Market Differences**

Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar are the largest brands in the space. Dollar Tree owns both Family Dollar and its namesake brand. In fiscal 2023, these two companies generated nearly $70 billion in combined revenue. Despite their vast number of stores, each brand targets different areas and demographics:

- **Dollar Tree**: Sells seasonal and discretionary items, like wrapping paper and toys, primarily located in suburban strip malls.
- **Family Dollar**: Acquired in 2015 for $9 billion, typically found in urban areas.
- **Dollar General**: Serves a mainly rural customer base, rooted in rural America and outer metro suburbs where established value retailers were absent.

**Business Model and Challenges**

The main goal of dollar stores is affordability, not necessarily offering the best value for money. For example, a 15-count box of dryer sheets at Dollar Tree costs $1.25, while a larger 240-count box at Target is $10. If a customer’s budget for their shopping trip is limited to $10, the dollar store makes sense, even if it isn’t the best deal per unit.

While sales for Dollar Tree and Dollar General increased by about 30% and 40%, respectively, from 2019 to 2023, this growth was largely driven by new store openings rather than existing stores’ sales performance. This expansion can mask slow growth at individual locations. High inflation disproportionately affects lower-income consumers, who make up Dollar General’s core customer base, defined as households earning less than $35,000 annually. This group accounts for about 60% of the company’s sales.

**Operational Issues and Economic Pressure**

Even as the job market remains relatively strong, middle and upper-income consumers have maintained their habits, while lower-income customers are becoming more selective, buying necessities over wants. This shift impacts dollar stores, where food and household items, often lower-margin products, have become more critical to sales. In its 2024 Q2 earnings, Dollar General reported a 13% reduction in non-consumable inventory compared to the previous year. Dollar Tree’s historical $1 price point, which changed in 2021 to $1.25, also diluted the brand’s original appeal and complicated the shopping experience.

Operational difficulties further hinder growth. Many dollar stores have issues like cluttered aisles, long checkout times, and understaffed stores, which detract from the convenience that initially drew customers. During the pandemic, inventory challenges became more pronounced as manufacturers deprioritized smaller, affordable products that dollar stores typically carry. The labor shortage, exacerbated by government subsidies, led to increased operational strain, with some stores becoming less functional.

**Worker Safety and Management Issues**

Dollar General and Dollar Tree have faced worker safety violations over the past decade. Early in 2024, Family Dollar was fined over $41 million for rodent-infested warehouses, highlighting long-standing issues stemming from Dollar Tree’s 2015 acquisition of the brand. Family Dollar, meant to rival Dollar General, has been less profitable and plagued with outdated systems and infrastructure. This neglect has contributed to declining foot traffic for Family Dollar, which has continued from 2019 to 2024.

**Competition and Market Shifts**

Walmart’s resurgence is another obstacle. During the Great Recession, customers shifted from Walmart to dollar stores. Today, the opposite is occurring as Walmart posts impressive same-store sales growth and attracts lower to middle-income consumers. Walmart’s strong e-commerce investments have set it apart, especially since many retailers accelerated digital advancements during COVID-19. Dollar stores, with less capacity for substantial e-commerce investments, lag behind.

Discount grocers like Aldi and Lidl have also expanded their presence, competing directly with dollar stores. Aldi has grown its U.S. locations by about 1,000 over the past decade, often in the same markets as dollar stores. As inflation normalizes, dollar stores might struggle to capture additional consumer spending, with higher-margin, discretionary items benefiting other retailers more.

**Future Challenges and Strategies**

Dollar General and Family Dollar’s heavy reliance on consumables (around 80% of sales) contrasts with Dollar Tree’s more discretionary-focused inventory. This reliance limits growth potential in a recovering economy. Additionally, potential policy changes, such as the 2025 increase in the minimum salary threshold for overtime pay, could raise operational costs.

Leadership changes compound the uncertainty. Dollar General’s current CEO is in his second term, while Dollar Tree’s CEO announced his resignation in November 2024. A Dollar Tree representative emphasized that new leadership is focusing on transforming the business, investing in workplace safety, and better positioning the company. Dollar General declined to comment.

In conclusion, dollar stores face a mix of internal issues and external pressures. To attract customers and foster loyalty, they must address operational inefficiencies, improve store conditions, and adapt to the evolving economic landscape. This multi-faceted approach is essential for revitalizing their business amid economic and competitive challenges.