自動車価格の高騰の背景にある要因と、アメリカ市場における競争や中国の影響について解説します。
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要約文(英語/日本語)
The price of new cars in the U.S. has surged nearly 30% over the past five years, with average costs approaching $50,000. High consumer prices are fueled by several factors: a shift toward high-margin SUVs, strategic changes by major automakers prioritizing profit over volume, and technological investments in electric and autonomous vehicles. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated supply issues, pushing prices higher. While there is pressure to produce more affordable vehicles, American automakers face significant challenges, including competition from China, where companies benefit from lower costs, fast production cycles, and government subsidies. U.S. manufacturers may need a major operational overhaul to bridge the 30% cost gap with Chinese rivals, who are also software-driven and vertically integrated, providing them an edge in the global market.
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字幕全文：2192 words
The average car price is nearly $50,000, a 30% increase over the past five years. Even a basic automobile now starts at $50,000 or more. Monthly payments are also at record highs. Many models exceed $100K, and a record number of owners find themselves "underwater," paying more on their loans than their vehicles are worth. Despite these challenges, automakers have resisted producing cheaper cars. Slim margins and high costs contribute to this reluctance.
Chinese cars, which are more affordable, face tariffs that reduce their appeal in the U.S. Insiders suggest that American carmakers cannot depend solely on protectionism; they need to cut costs and offer more affordable vehicles. Chinese companies, even without government support, have significant advantages.
Industry experts argue that this situation calls for transformative, not evolutionary, change. For many Americans, the rising cost of living extends beyond cars, but car prices have outpaced inflation. Although prices have dropped slightly from pandemic-era peaks, they remain high.
The question arises: what defines an affordable car? The Center for Automotive Research states that a $25,000 car fits this category. The average U.S. household spends about 15% of its income on transportation, which includes the cost of the car, gas, and maintenance. About 51% of the population can manage a $25,000 loan at 8% interest for 48 months. Extending the loan term increases affordability, but vehicles at this price point are rare. Before 2018, cars under $20,000 represented about 20% of the market, but such models have nearly disappeared. Few models remain below $25,000, while sales of new cars priced over $60,000 have surged.
Automakers have shifted focus to high-margin vehicles, like SUVs. SUVs have grown from 30% of car sales in 2009 to over 50% in 2019. The appeal of bigger vehicles has reshaped the market. For instance, when Ford introduced the now-discontinued subcompact EcoSport SUV, it priced it $4,500 higher than the Fiesta, despite sharing a platform.
Profit priorities have also changed. American automakers have stated explicitly that they prioritize profits over volume. GM and Stellantis (formerly Fiat Chrysler) have cut production of low-margin sedans. This strategy has been profitable: in 2023, GM and Ford reported their highest profits in a decade, while Stellantis also posted record earnings.
These profits come with trade-offs, such as investments in new technologies like electric vehicles (EVs), software-defined vehicles, advanced safety, and autonomous driving systems. Automakers must fund these investments through profits from internal combustion vehicles, balancing reduced production with maintaining profitability.
The COVID-19 pandemic also impacted car prices. Production shutdowns and supply chain disruptions led to shortages, allowing dealers and automakers to increase prices. Affordability suffered, with many automakers choosing to maintain higher prices over volume cuts, despite pleas from dealerships for more affordable options.
Looking ahead, EVs may offer a path to lower costs. Battery prices are falling faster than expected, and new steel types could allow for lighter, cheaper vehicles. The modular "skateboard" platforms used for EVs can be adapted for various models, spreading costs over different product lines. For example, GM’s least expensive EV, the Chevrolet Equinox, shares a platform with the high-end Cadillac Celestiq, showcasing cost-efficiency strategies.
Tesla's proposed "unboxing" method could also reduce costs and factory sizes by half, and partnerships between automakers could further drive down expenses. Policies supporting regulatory stability and incentives are also key to making EVs more affordable. Unlike in China, where consistent policies have fostered a dominant EV market, U.S. regulations often shift, complicating long-term planning for car manufacturers.
Chinese automakers, known for rapid development and significant cost advantages (about 30% lower than legacy carmakers), pose a major challenge. These advantages are supported by streamlined processes, such as virtual testing, which shortens development times and reduces costs. While legacy automakers might take 5.4 years to develop a new model, Chinese brands average 3.5 years, with new energy vehicle companies like BYD managing just 1.6 years.
However, Chinese companies accept early losses to achieve scale, gaining competitive advantages. This contrasts with American companies, where short-term profit pressures from investors hinder similar long-term strategies. To close this gap, U.S. automakers may need to embrace radical organizational changes, rethink processes, and increase in-house capabilities, as demonstrated by Tesla’s over-the-air software updates and vertical integration.
The U.S. has made strides in developing a local EV supply chain, surpassing China in recent investments. Yet, adapting to these changes and bridging the cost gap will require systemic transformations. This includes changing corporate structures, incentivizing innovation, and altering the power dynamics within organizations.
In conclusion, while policy support and innovation are crucial, market demand ultimately drives change. Automakers must be willing to challenge conventions and rework strategies to provide affordable, competitive vehicles in a market where Chinese companies continue to advance rapidly.
