アメリカにおける冷たいコーヒー消費の急増

Between 2016 and 2023,
consumer spending on cold coffee – which includes iced
coffee, cold brew and frozen coffee drinks – more than
doubled in the U.S. Hot coffee, on the other
hand, grew about 20%. Lots of ice is key, we want it
super, super cold. You know I see an iced coffee being
made on social media and they're shaking their ice
around. I'm like, well, maybe I want an iced coffee now. Like, it truly works. You can see that iced coffee
really is at the forefront of advertising for chains like
Dunkin'. The company told CNBC that
since 2019, it's grown its iced drinks by 50%, and they
now represent two-thirds of its total beverage sales. It can be ten degrees and snow
will be falling, and there will be people who will be
clutching their cold brew coffees as they walk to work. And that was not the case
until relatively recently. So why do Americans love
putting this traditionally hot beverage over ice? And will cold brew and iced
coffee eventually take over? Americans spent nearly $88
billion on out-of-home coffee purchases in 2023. Vanilla latte? About 20% of
that was on cold coffee. But tracking at-home cold
coffee consumption can be hard. A lot of people are taking
standard ground coffee, putting it in, you know, a
pitcher or something and letting it brew overnight,
and making cold brew. And how on earth do you track
that? And the answer is, you can't. Sales at coffeehouse chains
can help paint a clearer picture. Starbucks controls
about 25% of the U.S. Coffee and Snack shop market. The way it usually works in
the U.S. is that, coffee trends start
at the coffee shop and above all, at the big chains like
Starbucks. So, the way to look at it is,
when did they really start pushing the cold beverages? That's about when cold brews
start reaching those restaurant menus. And then
that shapes what good coffee is thought to be like in the
minds of consumers, which then in turn shapes things like
their at-home consumption patterns. From 2013 to 2021, Starbucks
U.S. cold beverage sales grew from
less than 40% to 75% of all drinks sold. It's important to note that
this includes non-coffee drinks as well. For Dutch Bros, a West
coast-based coffee chain, cold drinks account for about 90%
of its beverage sales. About half of that is cold
coffee. The rise of caffeinated
alternatives like energy drinks may help explain the
appeal of iced coffee as well. Americans love of soft drinks
in general. So, the view is, how can we
make coffee into a soft drink? In the U.S., ready to drink
coffee is almost always drank cold, and consumption is up
over 40% between 2019 and 2023. That is much higher
than the global growth rate. Even without Japan, who
accounts for about half of the total market and
disproportionately skews the data. When you look at the big
chains, they shape consumer tastes, but they also reflect
consumer tastes. And so I think there's a
little bit of both happening there, right where consumers
clearly are asking more for cold beverages. That's driven largely by Gen
Z, by millennials. The skew is pretty clear that
the younger consumers prefer cold coffees, iced cold brew,
etc.. The divide between iced versus
hot coffee drinkers is largely generational. Americans age
18 to 24 are the largest consumers of cold coffee. A survey found that about
half of respondents had it within the past day. The second largest
cold-coffee drinking cohort was respondents aged 25 to
39. And there was a big drop off
then in the Gen X and the boomers. They'll drink cold
coffees. They'll drink some cases,
cold brews or iced coffee, but it's really more like a
summertime thing when it's hot out. Whereas the millennials
and especially Gen Z really broke free of that
seasonality. And that's the key difference, is that they
view it as an anytime beverage rather than a seasonal thing. As a Gen Z coffee drinker
myself, I almost always opt for an iced coffee. And for
me personally, it's because it lasts longer than a hot
coffee. If I'm at the office, I want
something that I can sit at my desk and sip on for a few
hours. I think there's definitely
less exploration. There is less cravings for
variety with those older generations. Since coffee has
such an established background as this hot beverage, I think
it's kind of hard to break that mindset with a
generation that for so much of their lifetime, it has just
been that hot beverage. A 2023 Mintel report found
that 26% of U.S. teens consume cold coffee,
while about 18% consume hot. One reason behind its
popularity amongst younger generations is because it's
an easier entry to coffee. It's highly customizable, and
you can add lots of flavors and toppings that help divert
from the natural, bitter taste of coffee. Increasingly, that younger
consumer that is not just asking for a very plain cup
of hot coffee, right? They want a coffee based
beverage that has something more to it, and I think
that's reflected in that marketing and promotions. Thank you. Enjoy, have a nice day. The clear plastic cups
that cold coffee typically comes in lends itself very
well to the age of social media. These new drinks are a
Starbuck's Wicked collaboration, so you can see
that the foam on top is actually green, and as you
swirl it around, it mixes into the drink. There's some like,
sparkles on top. All of these colors and
esthetics simply wouldn't be possible if it were a hot
drink. Even though many younger Americans view cold
coffee as an all year round beverage, companies like
Starbucks have seen a clear dip in the winter months. One of the reasons Europe
hasn't fully adopted, cold coffee, is because of, I
think, the climate, and they're still largely driven
by hot coffee, and, you know, especially in northern
Europe. Americans as coffee drinkers,
are much more experimental, right? They don't have a very
strong coffee culture that you'd find in a place like a
Brazil or Turkey, Italy. There's that long historical
tradition, a sense of here's how we make coffee.
Traditionally, Americans are much more into trying new
things in terms of the trends right now spreading around
the world, things like cold brew, like nitro. They're
coming from the United States. Many coffee makers like
Nespresso and Keurig are jumping on the iced coffee
bandwagon, too. Nespresso released a ready to
drink canned beverage for the first time this summer, and
Keurig is now selling a coffee machine that brews hot and
then flash chills it to make ice coffee. Still, cold brew and iced
coffee have some ways to go before catching up to their
hot counterpart. Hot coffee is still by far
the most popular way Americans consume coffee. Though a big part of our
growth expectation is just that more and more
restaurants and food service operators are going to add
this to the menu. And so our expectations are
very bullish for growth of the cold coffee category over the
next five years.